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THE GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP : MEASUREMENT ISSUES AND DISPARITIES
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GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
1.1 議곗궗紐⑹쟻
2.OUTPUT 媛쒕뀗
2.1 OUTPUT 媛쒕뀗
2.2 OUTPUT �궗�슜諛곌꼍
2.3�옞�옱�쟻 �궛異쒕웾�뿉 ����븳 �떎�뼇�븳 �쓽寃�
3.OUTPUT GAP 痢≪젙諛⑸쾿
3.1 �넻怨꾩쟻 �젒洹�
3.2援ъ“�쟻 �젒洹�
4. Has the global output gap closed
4.1 �뜲�씠�꽣 臾몄젣
4.2 Global output gap 痢≪젙�뿉 ����븳 �웳�젏
4.3吏��뿭蹂� �궛異쒕웾 gap
5.寃곕줎
6.Q&A
紐⑹감
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
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3
議곗궗 紐⑹쟻
�솢 媛덈씪吏��뒗 �룊媛�媛�
�굹����굹�뒗吏� �꽕紐�
痢≪젙 媛��뒫�븳 踰붿쐞
�빞湲고븯�뒗 寃곌낵�뱾
媛�吏�怨� �엳�뒗 �떒�젏
寃곗젙�쟻�씤 吏덈Ц
�쐞湲곌�� �옞�옱�맂 �궛異쒕웾�뿉 二쇰뒗
�쁺�뼢�쓽 �젙�룄
鍮꾩쫰�땲�뒪 �닚�솚�쓽 蹂��솚 �젏 媛��뒥�쓽 �뼱�젮��� �끉�쓽
吏묒쟻 �씠�뒋
吏��뿭媛� 李⑥씠�뿉 ����븳 寃��넗
�끉臾몃ぉ�쟻
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
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4
OUTPUT 媛쒕뀗
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
OUTPUT GAP
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5
OUTPUT 媛쒕뀗
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
�쁽�떎 寃쎌젣�쓽 寃쎄린蹂��룞 �긽�솴 �젙�솗�븯寃� �뙆�븙
�쁽�떎 寃쎌젣�쓽 �샇�솴, 遺덊솴 �뙋�떒�쓣 �쐞�븳 湲곗��吏��몴濡�
�옞�옱�깮�궛(p���(�깮�왂)
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異붿젙 諛⑸쾿
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
異붿젙 諛⑸쾿
�넻怨꾩쟻 �젒洹쇰쾿 / 援ъ“�쟻 �젒洹쇰쾿
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Statistical approaches
OUTPUT GAP 痢≪젙 諛⑸쾿
�넻怨꾩쟻 �젒洹쇰쾿
鍮꾧��痢≪슂�씤 紐⑦삎 (Unobserved Component model)
移쇰쭔�븘�꽣瑜� �씠�슜�븯�뿬 �긽�깭怨듦컙紐⑦삎�쓣 異붿젙�븯�뒗 諛⑸쾿
�떎�젣GDP瑜� �옣湲곗텛�꽭遺�遺꾧낵 �닚�솚蹂��룞遺�遺� �벑 吏곸젒 愿�痢≫븷 �닔 �뾾�뒗 �슂�씤
(unobserved component)�뱾�쓽 �빀�쑝濡� 媛꾩＜�븯怨�, �씠濡쒕���꽣 �옣湲곗텛�꽭瑜�
異붿텧�븯�뿬 �씠瑜� �옞�옱GDP濡� 異붿젙�븯�뒗 諛⑸쾿
�떎吏� GDP濡쒕���꽣�쓽 �옞�옱�쟻 �궛異쒕웾�쓣 �넻�빐 OUTOUT GAP 痢≪젙
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13
Statistical approaches
OUTPUT GAP 痢≪젙 諛⑸쾿
�넻怨꾩쟻 �젒洹쇰쾿
Hodrick-Prescott(HP) �븘�꽣, 援ш컙�븘�꽣(band-pass filter)
�떆怨꾩뿴 �듅�꽦(time-series property)�쓣 遺꾩꽍�븯�뿬 �옞�옱 GDP瑜� 痢≪젙�븯�뒗 諛⑸쾿
HP filter, band-pass filter, UC model�뿉 �쓽�븳 �옞�옱 OUTPUT 異붿젙���
�떎�쟻移섎�� 湲곗큹濡� 異붿텧�븯湲� �븣臾몄뿉 �쁽�옱源뚯���쓽 �옞�옱 OUTPUT 異붿젙�뿉 二쇰줈 �씠�슜
�뼢�썑 �옣湲곌컙�쓽 �삁痢≪튂 異붿젙, �슂�씤蹂� �꽕紐낆뿉�뒗 �븳怨� 議댁옱
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GDP �뜲�씠�꽣 痢≪젙�씠 怨꾩냽�릺�뼱吏�
output gap �뿉 ����븳 �떎�떆媛� �넻怨꾩쟻 異붿젙��� �옄二� �닔�젙�릺�뼱�졇�빞�븿
Statistical approaches
OUTPUT GAP 痢≪젙 諛⑸쾿
�넻怨꾩쟻 �젒洹쇰쾿
�떎吏� GDP濡쒕���꽣�쓽 �옞�옱�쟻 �궛異쒕웾�쓣 �넻�빐 OUTOUT GAP 痢≪젙
��섏쥌�젏�쓽 臾몄젣��� �뿉 �삁�냽
HP filter (媛��옣 ����몴�쟻), band-pass filter, UC model
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15
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
Statistical approaches
�넻怨꾩쟻 痢≪젙
-HP Filt
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