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동태패널중력모형을 이용한 한중일 수입흐름 분석
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자료설명
동태패널중력모형을 이용한 한중일 수입흐름 분석에 대한 글입니다.
up동태패널중력모형을이용한한중일수입흐름분석
up동태패널중력모형을이용한한중일수입흐름분석
본문/내용
1. 자료와 특유효과의 진단
본 연구는 동아시아 경제협력의 일환으로 논의되고 있는 무역자유화의 논의에 앞서 한·중·일 3국의 교역패턴을 분석하는 일환으로 중력식(gravity equation)을 기초로 하여 한·중·일 3국의 수입무역의 특징을 비교하였다. 한·중·일 3국의 수입흐름을 추정하기 위해 식 (8.2)의 확장된 중력모형을 이용하였다.(9)
여기서 개별독립변수에 대한 정의는 다음과 같다.
은 로그변환된 국의 수입량,
은 로그변환된 교역당사국들의 소득합계,
은 로그변환된 국가규모유사성지수 ,
는 로그변환된 두 국가의 인당소득차이, 즉 국과 국의 인당소득 차이의 절대값,
는 로그변환된 두 국가의 인당 국토면적, 즉 국과 국의 인당국토면적 차이의 절대값,
는 로그변환된 교역당사국간 거리,
은 오차항
본 연구에서 사용된 자료들은 대부분 Glick and Rose(2002)가 작성한 자료들을 기초로 하고 있다. 수입자료는 IMF에서 작성된 DoT(Direction of Trade) 자료에서 추출된 것으로, 전체 자료집합은 1948년부터 1999년 기간의 217개 IMF 회원국간에 이루어진 이국…(생략)
참고문헌
Anderson, J. E. and D. Marcouiller, 2002, “Insecurity and the pattern of trade: An empirical investigation”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 84, 342-352.
Anderson, J. E., 1979, “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation”, American Economic Review, Vol. 69, No. 1, 106-116.
Baltagi, 2001, Econometric analysis of panel data, Wiley and Sons.
Bergstrand, J. H., 1985, “The Gravity Equation in International Trade; some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 67, 474-481.
, 1989, “The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 71, No. 1, 143- 153.
, 1990, “The Hechscher-Ohline-Samuelson Model, the Linder Hypothesis and the Determinants of Bilateral Intra-Industry Trade”, Economic Journal, Vol. 100, 1216-1229.
Cheng, I-H and H. Wall, 1999, “Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper No. 1999-010C.
Davis, Donald R., “Intra-industry Trade: A Heckscher-Ohlin-Ricardo Approach”, 1995, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 39, 201- 226.
Deardorff, A. V., 1998, “Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?”, in Jeffrey A. Frankel ed., The Regionalization of World Economy, 7-22.
Dixit, A. and V. Norman, 1980, Theory of International Trade, London: Cambridge University Press.
Dornbusch, R., S. Fisher, and P. A. Samuelson, 1977, “Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods”, American Economic Review, Vol. 67, No. 5, 1977, 823-839.
Eaton, Jonathan and Samuel Kortum, 2002, “Technology, Geography, and Trade”, Econometrica, Vol. 70, No. 5, 1744-1779.
Egger, P. and M. Pfafermayr, 2002, “The proper econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects”, mimeo.
Evenett, S. J. and W. Keller., 1998, “On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation”, NBER Working Paper, No.6529.
Falvey, R. E., and H. Kierzkowski, 1987, “Product Quality, Intra-Industry Trade and(im)perfect Competition”, in H. Kierzkowski Eds., Protection and Competition in International Trade, Basil Blackwell, 143-161.
Feenstra, Robert. C., James A. Markusen and Andrew K. Rose., 1999, “Using The Gravity Equation To Differentiate Among Alternative Theories Of Trade”, NBER Working Paper, No. 6804.
Ghosh, S. K., 1976, “Estimating from a more general times-series cum cross-section data structures”, The American Economist Vol. 20, No. 1, 15-21
Glick, R. and A. K. Rose, 2002, “Does a currency union affect trade? The time-series evidence”, European Economic Review, Vol. 46, No. 6, 1125-1151.
Gould, David M., 1994, “Immigrant Links to the Home Country”. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 76, No. 2, 302-316.
Grossman, G. and K. Rogoff, 1995, Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 3, North-Holland.
Harrigan, James, 2001, “Specialization and the Volume of Trade: Do the Data Obey the Laws?”, NBER Working Paper, No. 8675 and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report, No. 140.
Helpman, E. and P. Krugman., 1985, Market Structure and Foreign Trade, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press.
Helpman, E., 1981, “International Trade in Presence of Product Differentiation, Economics of Scale and Monopolistic Competition: A Chamberlin-Heckscher-Ohlin Approach”, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 11, 304-340.
, 1987, “Imperfect Competition and International Trade: Evidence from Fourteen Industrial Countries”, Journal of Japanese and International Economics, Vol. 1, No. 1, 62-81.
Hummels, D. and James A. Levinshon., 1995, “Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 110, No. 3, 799-836.
Jeffrey, A. Frankel and Shang-Jin. Wei., 1993, “Trade Blocks and Currency blocs”, NBER Working Paper, No. 4335.
Krugman, P. R., 1980, “Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade”, American Economic Review, Vol 70, No 5, 950- 959.
Leamer, E. and James. A. Levinshon., 1995, “International Trade Theory: The Evidence”, chapter 26 of G. M. Grossman and K. Rogoff eds., Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 3, 1339- 1394.
Linnemann, H, 1966., An Econometric Study in International Trade Flows, North Holland.
Mátyás, L., 1997, “Proper econometric specification of the gravity model”, The World Economy, Vol. 20, No. 3, 363-368.
, 1998, “The Gravity Model: Some Econometric Considerations”, The World Economy, Vol. 21, No. 3, 397-401.
Mátyás., L., L. Konya and M. N. Harris, 2000, “Modelling Export Activity of Eleven APEC Countries”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, No. 05/2000.
Oguledo, V. I. and C. R. MacPhee, 1994, “Gravity models: A reformulation and an application to discriminatory trade arrangements”, Applied Economics, Vol. 26, No. 2, 107-120.
Pöyhönen, 1963, “A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries”, Welwirtschaftliches Archives, Vol. 90, 93-99.
Tinbergen, J., 1962, Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Trade Policy.
Anderson, J. E., 1979, “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation”, American Economic Review, Vol. 69, No. 1, 106-116.
Baltagi, 2001, Econometric analysis of panel data, Wiley and Sons.
Bergstrand, J. H., 1985, “The Gravity Equation in International Trade; some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 67, 474-481.
, 1989, “The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 71, No. 1, 143- 153.
, 1990, “The Hechscher-Ohline-Samuelson Model, the Linder Hypothesis and the Determinants of Bilateral Intra-Industry Trade”, Economic Journal, Vol. 100, 1216-1229.
Cheng, I-H and H. Wall, 1999, “Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper No. 1999-010C.
Davis, Donald R., “Intra-industry Trade: A Heckscher-Ohlin-Ricardo Approach”, 1995, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 39, 201- 226.
Deardorff, A. V., 1998, “Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?”, in Jeffrey A. Frankel ed., The Regionalization of World Economy, 7-22.
Dixit, A. and V. Norman, 1980, Theory of International Trade, London: Cambridge University Press.
Dornbusch, R., S. Fisher, and P. A. Samuelson, 1977, “Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods”, American Economic Review, Vol. 67, No. 5, 1977, 823-839.
Eaton, Jonathan and Samuel Kortum, 2002, “Technology, Geography, and Trade”, Econometrica, Vol. 70, No. 5, 1744-1779.
Egger, P. and M. Pfafermayr, 2002, “The proper econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects”, mimeo.
Evenett, S. J. and W. Keller., 1998, “On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation”, NBER Working Paper, No.6529.
Falvey, R. E., and H. Kierzkowski, 1987, “Product Quality, Intra-Industry Trade and(im)perfect Competition”, in H. Kierzkowski Eds., Protection and Competition in International Trade, Basil Blackwell, 143-161.
Feenstra, Robert. C., James A. Markusen and Andrew K. Rose., 1999, “Using The Gravity Equation To Differentiate Among Alternative Theories Of Trade”, NBER Working Paper, No. 6804.
Ghosh, S. K., 1976, “Estimating from a more general times-series cum cross-section data structures”, The American Economist Vol. 20, No. 1, 15-21
Glick, R. and A. K. Rose, 2002, “Does a currency union affect trade? The time-series evidence”, European Economic Review, Vol. 46, No. 6, 1125-1151.
Gould, David M., 1994, “Immigrant Links to the Home Country”. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 76, No. 2, 302-316.
Grossman, G. and K. Rogoff, 1995, Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 3, North-Holland.
Harrigan, James, 2001, “Specialization and the Volume of Trade: Do the Data Obey the Laws?”, NBER Working Paper, No. 8675 and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report, No. 140.
Helpman, E. and P. Krugman., 1985, Market Structure and Foreign Trade, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press.
Helpman, E., 1981, “International Trade in Presence of Product Differentiation, Economics of Scale and Monopolistic Competition: A Chamberlin-Heckscher-Ohlin Approach”, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 11, 304-340.
, 1987, “Imperfect Competition and International Trade: Evidence from Fourteen Industrial Countries”, Journal of Japanese and International Economics, Vol. 1, No. 1, 62-81.
Hummels, D. and James A. Levinshon., 1995, “Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 110, No. 3, 799-836.
Jeffrey, A. Frankel and Shang-Jin. Wei., 1993, “Trade Blocks and Currency blocs”, NBER Working Paper, No. 4335.
Krugman, P. R., 1980, “Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade”, American Economic Review, Vol 70, No 5, 950- 959.
Leamer, E. and James. A. Levinshon., 1995, “International Trade Theory: The Evidence”, chapter 26 of G. M. Grossman and K. Rogoff eds., Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 3, 1339- 1394.
Linnemann, H, 1966., An Econometric Study in International Trade Flows, North Holland.
Mátyás, L., 1997, “Proper econometric specification of the gravity model”, The World Economy, Vol. 20, No. 3, 363-368.
, 1998, “The Gravity Model: Some Econometric Considerations”, The World Economy, Vol. 21, No. 3, 397-401.
Mátyás., L., L. Konya and M. N. Harris, 2000, “Modelling Export Activity of Eleven APEC Countries”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, No. 05/2000.
Oguledo, V. I. and C. R. MacPhee, 1994, “Gravity models: A reformulation and an application to discriminatory trade arrangements”, Applied Economics, Vol. 26, No. 2, 107-120.
Pöyhönen, 1963, “A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries”, Welwirtschaftliches Archives, Vol. 90, 93-99.
Tinbergen, J., 1962, Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Trade Policy.
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