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_SLIDE_1_
¡°¸¶¾àÀÇ Çã¿ë¹üÀ§°¡ ³Ð¾îÁú¼ö·Ï û¼Ò³â ¸¶¾àÁßµ¶ ºñÀ²ÀÌ °¨¼ÒµÈ´Ù¡±
_SLIDE_2_
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(1) ³×´ú¶õµå Ä¿ÇǼó Á¦µµÀÇ µµÀÔ
(2) û¼Ò³â ¸¶¾à Áßµ¶ÀÚ ºñÀ²ÀÇ ÃßÀÌ
(3) 5 hurdles
3. °á ·Ð
Step 3
Step 2
Step 1
_SLIDE_3_
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°¡¼³ ¼³Á¤ ´Ü°è
_SLIDE_4_
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¿Ö ³×´ú¶õµå û¼Ò³âÀÇ
¸¶¾à Áßµ¶ºñÀ²Àº ³·¾ÆÁ³À»±î
_SLIDE_5_
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À¯ÀÏÇÑ ¸¶¾à ÇÕ¹ý ±¹°¡
°¡¼³ ¼³Á¤
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_SLIDE_6_
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°¡¼³ ¼³Á¤
1996³â Ä¿ÇǼó Á¦µµ µµÀÔ
2003³â Á¤½ÄÀûÀ¸·Î ¸¶¾à ÇÕ¹ýÈ
_SLIDE_7_
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°¡¼³ ¼³Á¤
Á¤ºÎÀÇ Ä¡·á ½Ã½ºÅÛ
û¼Ò³âµéÀÇ ¸¶¾àÁßµ¶ÀÚ ¼ö°¡
ÁÙ¾îµå´Âµ¥ ¿µÇâÀ» ¹ÌÄ£´Ù
_SLIDE_8_
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°¡¼³ ¼³Á¤
±¹°¡¿¡¼ Ä¡·á¹Þ´Â ȯÀÚ ¼ö û¼Ò³â ¸¶¾àÁßµ¶ÀÚ ºñÀ²
Å« ¿µÇâ ¾øÀ½
ÅëÁ¦
Number of c¡¦(»ý·«)
1. Is there a credible causal mechanism that connects X to Y
2. Does X come first in time
3. Is there co-variation between X and Y
4. Could Y cause X
5 Hurdles
Y
_SLIDE_21_
º» ·Ð
5 Hurdles
NO
û¼Ò³âµéÀÇ ¸¶¾àÁßµ¶ ºñÀ²ÀÌ ¸¶¾àÀÇ Çã¿ë ¹üÀ§¸¦ °áÁ¤ÁöÀ» ¼ö ¾ø´Ù.
4. Could Y cause X
_SLIDE_22_
º» ·Ð
5 Hurdles
¿¹»ó °¡´ÉÇÑ Á¦3ÀÇ º¯¼ö Z
-ÁöÇϰæÁ¦ÀÇ ¼Ò¸ê
-³×´ú¶õµå °íÀ¯ÀÇ °ü¿ë(Gedogen) Á¤½Å
5. Spuriousness
NO Spuriousness
_SLIDE_23_
°á ·Ð
_SLIDE_24_
°á ·Ð
¿¬±¸ °á°ú
¹Ýºñ·ÊÀû »ó°ü°ü°è ¼º¸³
_SLIDE_25_
.
¿ì¸® Á¶ÀÇ °¡¼³ °ËÁõ °á°ú
¸¶¾àÀÇ Çã¿ë ¹üÀ§°¡ ³Ð¾îÁú¼ö·Ï
û¼Ò³â ¸¶¾à Áßµ¶ ºñÀ²Àº °¨¼ÒµÈ´Ù
_SLIDE_26_
THANK YOU
_NOTES_1_
1
_NOTES_2_
4
_NOTES_3_
´Ù¸¥ ³ª¶óµéÀº ¸¶¾àÀ» ±ÝÁöÈÇϰí ÀÖ´Â ¹Ý¸é
³×´ú¶õµå´Â ¸¶¾àÀ» ÇÕ¹ýÈÇϱ⿡ À̸£·¶À½.
5
_NOTES_4_
±×·³¿¡µµ ³×´ú¶õµå°¡ ¸¶¾àÀÇ Çã¿ë ¹üÀ§ Á¤µµ¸¦ ³ô¿©°¡°í ÀÖ´Ù.
ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ Á¡¿¡¼ ¿ì¸® Á¶´Â ³×´ú¶õµåÀÇ ¸¶¾à Çã¿ë¹üÀ§Á¤µµ°¡ ¸¶¾à Áßµ¶ºñÀ²¿¡ ¿µÇâÀ» ³¢Ä£´Ù°í »ý°¢ÇÏ¿©
°¡¼³À» ¼³Á¤ÇÏ¿´´Ù.
6
_NOTES_5_
7
_NOTES_6_
8
_NOTES_7_
9
_NOTES_8_
¿ì¸®´Â Çã¿ëÀÇ ¹üÀ§°¡ ³Ð¾îÁü¿¡ µû¶ó ±¹°¡°¡ ¸¶¾à ¸Å¸Å¸¦ Á÷Á¢ °ü¸®Çϰí, ±¹°¡¸¦ ÅëÇØ ÇÕ¹ýÀûÀ¸·Î ¸¶¾àÀ» ±¸¸ÅÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ°Ô µÇ¾ú°í, µû¶ó¼ ÇÕ¹ýÈ Àüº¸´Ù ¸¶¾à ¹Ð¸ÅÀÇ ±Ô¸ð°¡ ÇöÀúÇÏ°Ô ÁÙ¾úÀ» °ÍÀ¸·Î º¸¾Ò´Ù. °á°úÀûÀ¸·Î 18¼¼ ¹Ì¸¸ÀΠû¼Ò³âµéÀº ¸¶¾àÀ» Á¢ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ ±âÁ¸º¸´Ù ¾î·Á¿ö Á³À» °ÍÀ̶ó´Â »ý°¢¿¡ Âø¼öÇÏ¿© °¡¼³À» ¼³Á¤Çغ¸¾Ò´Ù.
10
_NOTES_9_
5°¡Áö Ä¿ÇÇ¼ó¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ±ÔÁ¦ »çÇ×
Ç÷¯½º
±¹°¡°¡ ÀÌ·± ±ÔÁ¦»çÇ×À» µÎ¸é¼ °ø½ÄÀûÀ¸·Î °ü¸®ÇÏ°Ô µÇ¾ú´Ù´Â ¾ê±â
13
_NOTES_10_
2003³â¿¡´Â ¸¶¾àÀ» Á¤½ÄÀûÀ¸·Î ÇÕ¹ýÈÇÔÀ¸·Î½á 1996³âº¸´Ù ¸¶¾à¿¡ ´ëÇÑ Çã¿ë¹üÀ§°¡ ´õ ³Ð¾îÁ³´Ù.
14
_NOTES_11_